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30 Jun 2014
EUR/USD: building upside pressure - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that the ECB decision Thursday will be relatively quiet from a market moving perspective. However, from a technical point of view, the analyst remains bullish on the EUR.
Key Quotes
“EUR is up a modest 0.1% from Friday’s close but since June 5th (the day of the ECB meeting) it is up over 1%”.
“Today’s flash CPI, coming in at 0.5%y/y on headline and 0.8%y/y on core, can be viewed in one of two ways: 1) there are signs there is some stabilization in disinflationary pressures and rising oil prices should keep upward pressure building; 2) today’s EU release juxtaposed against the surprisingly strong CPI in Germany suggest that the periphery is still under significant disinflationary pressures”.
“From the ECB’s perspective it is likely to be seen as a reassuring print; making Thursday’s interest rate decision and press conference relatively quiet from a market moving perspective”.
“Today, German retail sales were mixed, up 1.9%y/y but down –0.6%m/m. Near‐term risk are the European PMIs to be released on July 1st”.
“EUR/USD short‐term technicals: bullish—most technical studies warn of building upside pressure on EUR; opening up a potential test to the 100‐day MA at 1.3738. Accordingly for short‐term traders we favour being long EUR”.
Key Quotes
“EUR is up a modest 0.1% from Friday’s close but since June 5th (the day of the ECB meeting) it is up over 1%”.
“Today’s flash CPI, coming in at 0.5%y/y on headline and 0.8%y/y on core, can be viewed in one of two ways: 1) there are signs there is some stabilization in disinflationary pressures and rising oil prices should keep upward pressure building; 2) today’s EU release juxtaposed against the surprisingly strong CPI in Germany suggest that the periphery is still under significant disinflationary pressures”.
“From the ECB’s perspective it is likely to be seen as a reassuring print; making Thursday’s interest rate decision and press conference relatively quiet from a market moving perspective”.
“Today, German retail sales were mixed, up 1.9%y/y but down –0.6%m/m. Near‐term risk are the European PMIs to be released on July 1st”.
“EUR/USD short‐term technicals: bullish—most technical studies warn of building upside pressure on EUR; opening up a potential test to the 100‐day MA at 1.3738. Accordingly for short‐term traders we favour being long EUR”.