When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK Economic Data Overview

The British economic calendar will entertain the global traders amid recently sluggish markets at 06:00 GMT with the GDP figures for April. Also increasing the importance of that time are April month Trade Balance and Industrial Production details.

The United Kingdom GDP is expected to arrive at -18.4% MoM in April versus -5.8% prior while the Index of Services (3M/3M) for the same period is seen lower from -1.9% to -2.0%.

Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to slump 15.8% MoM in April against -4.6% recorded in March. Further, the total Industrial Production is expected to come in at -15.0% MoM for April as compared to the previous reading of -4.2%.

Considering the yearly fact, the Industrial Production for April is expected to have dropped by 19.3% versus -8.2% previous while the Manufacturing Production is also anticipated to have declined by 19.9% in the reported month versus -9.7% last.

Separately, the UK Goods Trade Balance will be reported at the same time and is expected to show a deficit of £11.621 billion versus an £12.50 billion deficit reported in March.

How could affect GBP/USD?

At the press time, the GBP/USD stalls its downside momentum established for the last two days while battling near the one-week low surrounding 1.2560, with all eyes on the critical UK macro releases.

With the quote’s sustained trading below 200-day EMA ahead of the likely downbeat data, the pair traders remain hopeful of witnessing 1.2520/15 support confluence comprising 100-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month’s fall. It should also be noted that the pair’s breakout of 200-day EMA, at 1.2615 now, could attempt another rise to aim for 1.2800 and then to the monthly high near 1.2813. In doing so, February month low near 1.2725 might offer an intermediate halt during the run-up.

However, the anticipated macro weakness due to the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led lockdowns I the only thing the Cable is suffering from. Brexit and the BOE’s dovish bias, coupled with the fears of the early economic restart, are additional causes of concerns for the GBP/USD traders. Hence, even with the surprisingly positive outcome, the bears are less likely to deviate from the current path.

Key notes

UK GDP Preview: A 20% plunge could serve as a third blow to sterling, three scenarios

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Sellers target 1.2520/15 support confluence ahead of UK GDP

GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish pressure mounts as 1.2600 gives up

About the UK Economic Data

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Manufacturing Production released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.