Canada: Retail sales likely to rise 0.3% in February – TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that Canada’s retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3% in February, matching their performance from the prior month.

Key Quotes

“We look for auto sales to make a positive contribution to the headline print but expect weaker growth in core retail sales, as a slowdown in the housing market and more modest labour market performance weigh on consumer sentiment. Gasoline station receipts should also make a muted contribution with prices little changed on the month.”

“Real retail sales will come in slightly below the nominal print; even though an upside surprise in February CPI pushed inflation to a three-year high, prices were only 0.15% higher on a SA basis. This would leave volumes relatively stable near 3% y/y, though Q1 is shaping up to be weaker after a poor handoff from Q4 and soft 0.1% increase in January.”