JPY rock solid amidst Fed’s dovishness in play - AGFXC

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the Fed FOMC was quite dovish and pessimistic by downgrading the outlook for rates over the medium term to reflect a weaker outlook for US growth potential.

Key Quotes

“This may reinforce the weaker USD trend that has taken hold since early this year. The Fed has proven very sensitive to the payrolls report and even more attention will apply to this report in coming months.

JPY is rock solid despite the rising hope of Bremain. The strong JPY is significantly undermining the effectiveness of BoJ policy and keeping downward pressure on global bond yields. Policymakers in Japan appear to have lost the initiative over controlling expectations and financial market outcomes. It is far from clear whether further BoJ or fiscal policy easing anticipated after the 10 July upper house elections will be enough to turn the tide in the JPY.

The trend towards a weaker USD/JPY is having broader consequences; it is contributing to very low global bond yields, spilling over to broader weakness in the USD, placing upward pressure on global asset prices, albeit in an environment of low confidence and fear of over-valuation, and contributing to a rising gold price as investors seek an alternative to low yielding bonds and assets and fear more adventurous central bank policy."