UK: Heightened uncertainty around March’s IP number - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that there’s heightened uncertainty around UK’s March IP number, as the ONS mentioned in last week’s GDP release that they would revise IP growth rates up in January significantly (especially so for the headline IP print).

Key Quotes

“We see downside risks to the March manufacturing print, with a 0.3% m/m decline (consensus: +0.3% m/m), but the revisions might distort the monthly pattern in 16Q1. And how the weak PMI manufacturing figures translate into declines in real activity remains to be seen – the PMIs tend to pick up confidence effects as well as activity. But risks are certainly skewed to the downside for activity in the UK production sector ahead of June’s referendum.”