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17 Jul 2013
Flash: Japan's ruling coalition set to win upper house election - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Opinion polls out of Japan on the upper house election were published over the weekend, and as Yujiro Goto, Strategist at Nomura, notes, "all three poll results so far show the LDP/New Komeito coalition likely to achieve a joint majority in the upper house ,with the possibility of a solo majority for the LDP still exists as an upside risk scenario."
Poll results - Nomura
The FNN poll over July 12-14 suggested the LDP is likely to double its number of seats from the 34 seats up for re-election, while New Komeito should gain about 10 seats. The total number of seats for the coalition should be more than enough for a joint majority (63) while the LDP may not win enough seats on its own to gain a solo majority (72).
The Asahi poll shows 43% respondents intend to vote for LDP (41% a week ago). New Komeito was up to 8% from 4% while the share of respondents intending to vote for the DPJ (8% to 6%), JRP (7% to 6%), and Your party (7% to 6%) all inched down.
The Communist Party's popularity increased to 6% from 5%.
The Mainichi poll (July 13-14) shows 37% of respondents intend to vote for the LDP (45% as of June 29-30), making it still the most popular party. The DPJ (7%, down from 8%), JRP (8%, up from 5%), New Komeito (8%, up from 6%), and Your Party
(8%, up from 7%) are competing within a narrow range.
Poll results - Nomura
The FNN poll over July 12-14 suggested the LDP is likely to double its number of seats from the 34 seats up for re-election, while New Komeito should gain about 10 seats. The total number of seats for the coalition should be more than enough for a joint majority (63) while the LDP may not win enough seats on its own to gain a solo majority (72).
The Asahi poll shows 43% respondents intend to vote for LDP (41% a week ago). New Komeito was up to 8% from 4% while the share of respondents intending to vote for the DPJ (8% to 6%), JRP (7% to 6%), and Your party (7% to 6%) all inched down.
The Communist Party's popularity increased to 6% from 5%.
The Mainichi poll (July 13-14) shows 37% of respondents intend to vote for the LDP (45% as of June 29-30), making it still the most popular party. The DPJ (7%, down from 8%), JRP (8%, up from 5%), New Komeito (8%, up from 6%), and Your Party
(8%, up from 7%) are competing within a narrow range.