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30 Oct 2014
RBNZ to re-start rate hikes in Dec 2015 - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ reviews today's RBNZ policy decision, noting that the statement suggests the tightening cycle is close to an end, adding that the next rate hike is not expected until December 2015, although it will be highly data dependent.
Key Quotes
"While the RBNZ still has a tightening bias (inflation is after all still expected to move up as the expansion continues), executing on this looks to be far off given current uncertainties and ambiguities, with the RBNZ in effect delivering a neutral statement."
"In fact one could easily take today’s statement as suggesting the tightening cycle is close to an end (trend growth, low inflation, easing house price inflation, etc)."
"However, the central scenario still looks one of slow uplifts in inflation going forward and on that basis further upwards tweaks to the OCR look inevitable (but not imminent). Looking forward, we expect a December 2015 start to OCR hikes, but for this to be highly data dependent given the uncertainties surrounding the outlook."
Key Quotes
"While the RBNZ still has a tightening bias (inflation is after all still expected to move up as the expansion continues), executing on this looks to be far off given current uncertainties and ambiguities, with the RBNZ in effect delivering a neutral statement."
"In fact one could easily take today’s statement as suggesting the tightening cycle is close to an end (trend growth, low inflation, easing house price inflation, etc)."
"However, the central scenario still looks one of slow uplifts in inflation going forward and on that basis further upwards tweaks to the OCR look inevitable (but not imminent). Looking forward, we expect a December 2015 start to OCR hikes, but for this to be highly data dependent given the uncertainties surrounding the outlook."