Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD unlikely to enjoy big gains for a while yet – TDS

Economists at TD Securities analyze the Gold outlook after US Core PCE data lifted the yellow metal.

Risk of a drop down to the 200-DMA reduced 

At 4.6%, the US May YoYcore PCE is slightly lower than expected and with weaker personal May personal spending, the market drove yields lower. With that, the USD dropped, and Gold bounced convincingly above $1,900. This reduces the risk of a drop down to the 200-DMA, for now.

Inflation is still too high, so the Fed's restrictive narrative will continue, but it bodes well for the long term, as there is evidence building that inflation has peaked and is trending lower. This suggests that while the yellow metal won't plunge, big gains are unlikely for a while yet. After all, the market is still pricing a hike next FOMC.