Canada: Economy wasn't quite resilient – CIBC

Data released on Friday showed that the Canadian economy stagnated during April, against expectations of a 0.2% expansion. Analysts at CIBC point out that the Canadian economy wasn't quite as resilient to the headwinds it was facing in April as was first indicated. 

Key quotes: 

“While the strike by federal workers has created some noise within the data, the underlying trend still appears to show a weakening of growth following the very swift start to the year. With absolute levels of activity getting closer to pre-pandemic norms in some of the sectors that have been recovering over the past year, and with interest rate hikes still having a lagged impact, growth rates for the economy as a whole will likely weaken further during the second half of the year and into 2024.”

“For now we retain our call for no hike in July, and a final 25bp move in September, but the BoC's surveys later this morning and labour force survey next week could still tip the balance on that call.”