Fed to deliver a 25bp hike and communicate a conditional pause – Morgan Stanley

After conveying the likely peak of interest rates at the major central banks during early Week, Morgan Stanley (MS) provided detailed expectations for the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting.

MS said they expect the Fed to deliver a 25 basis points (bps) hike and communicate a conditional pause.

The research also states that their rates strategists see scope for markets to extract a dovish message from the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting. That said, the MS highlights news about recent banking system stress as a challenge for the US central bank hawks.

It’s worth noting that the MS anticipates softer second quarter (Q2) US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data while expecting -0.4% figures for the Q2 2023 GDP.

Also read: Fed rates are unlikely to go anywhere near zero, even if US economy tips into recession – Morgan Stanley