BoE could hike only 50 bps, pounding the pound – ING

Sterling will be settling into ranges ahead of next week's event risks in the form of both the Fed and Bank of England (BoE) rate meetings. Economists at ING are closely monitoring a possible break below 1.15 in the GBP/USD pair.

Taking stock ahead of next week's BoE meeting

“Intriguingly, the pricing for next week's BoE rate meeting is starting to drift below a 75 bps hike to 3.00%. Remember that at the height of the fiscal fiasco, the market had briefly priced the bank rate being taken to 3.90% at next week's meeting.”

“We think the chances of a 50 bps hike from the BoE are greater than the market currently prices – and that is a sterling negative.”

“Let's see whether GBP/USD can break back under 1.1500 today, while the softer euro probably defines the EUR/GBP range somewhere in the 0.8600-0.8700 region.”